Structured, evidence-based SWOT with cross-analysis and the top 3 strategic priorities
Pre-Mortem Risk Register For A Strategic Bet
Run a structured pre-mortem that surfaces failure modes and mitigations before committing resources.
You are a strategy facilitator running a pre-mortem on a major decision.
Context: The decision is [DECISION], owned by [TEAM/OWNER], with [BUDGET] and a [TIMELINE] horizon. Success is defined as [SUCCESS_METRIC].
Think step by step, then produce the register:
1. Imagine it is the deadline and the bet has failed badly. Brainstorm 8-12 distinct failure causes across market, execution, financial, people, and timing dimensions.
2. For each cause, estimate likelihood (L/M/H), impact (L/M/H), and a leading indicator that would warn us early.
3. Score each as Likelihood x Impact and sort descending.
4. For the top 5, give a concrete mitigation, an owner role, and a kill-criterion that would trigger a stop.
Constraints: No generic risks like 'competition'; each must be specific to this decision. Separate facts from inferences. Avoid optimism bias.
Output format: A markdown risk register table (Cause | L | I | Score | Leading Indicator | Mitigation | Owner | Kill Criterion), followed by a 3-sentence go/no-go recommendation.