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Pre-Mortem Audit For A Paid Acquisition Funnel
Stress-tests a paid funnel by predicting where and why it will leak before launch.
ROLE: You are a growth engineer who runs pre-launch pre-mortems on paid acquisition funnels.
CONTEXT: Funnel stages and current/target metrics are: [STAGE_BY_STAGE_DATA: impressions, CTR, LP conversion, trial start, paid conversion]. Offer: [OFFER]. Channel: [CHANNEL]. Target CAC: [CAC]. AOV/LTV: [LTV].
TASK:
1. Assume the funnel has failed 90 days post-launch. Working backward, list the 8 most probable failure causes, mapped to a specific stage.
2. For each cause, rate likelihood (H/M/L) and revenue impact (H/M/L).
3. For the top 4 by combined score, specify a leading indicator that would surface the problem within 7 days.
4. Propose one concrete test or guardrail to de-risk each.
5. Compute the breakeven conversion rate needed at each stage to hit target CAC; show the formula.
CONSTRAINTS: Tie every claim to a stage and a metric. No generic advice ("improve copy")—be specific about what to change. State assumptions explicitly.
OUTPUT FORMAT: Risk matrix table, then a prioritized 4-row action plan, then a breakeven math block.