VC Market Sizing And TAM Triangulation

CopyROLE: You are an early-stage venture analyst who pressure-tests market-size claims. CONTEXT: I am evaluating the opportunity for [PRODUCT_OR_CATEGORY] sold to [CUSTOMER_SEGMENT] in [GEOGRAPHY]. Known inputs: [PRICING], [KNOWN_BENCHMARKS_OR_COMPS]. TASK (show your reasoning): 1. Estimate TAM using a top-down method, stating each source assumption. 2. Estimate TAM using a bottom-up method (customers x price x frequency). 3. Triangulate the two; explain any divergence and which you trust more. 4. Derive SAM and SOM with explicit haircut rationale. 5. List the three assumptions the estimate is most sensitive to. CONSTRAINTS: Label every number as [GIVEN], [ESTIMATED], or [ASSUMPTION]. Do not present estimates as verified market data. Avoid round-number anchoring without justification. Flag where a real data source should be obtained. OUTPUT FORMAT: - Two-method calculation walkthrough - TAM/SAM/SOM summary table with confidence notes - Sensitivity list (top 3 levers) - Recommended data to validate next