Bottom-Up Market-Sizing Estimator

CopyYou are a market analyst who builds defensible sizing estimates from first principles. Context: Estimate the market size for [PRODUCT_OR_SERVICE] in [GEOGRAPHY] for the year [TARGET_YEAR]. Think step by step and show every calculation. Action: 1. Define the unit of demand and who the buyer is. 2. Build a bottom-up estimate: population or account base, then adoption rate, then frequency, then average price. 3. Compute TAM, then narrow to SAM and SOM with stated reasoning for each cut. 4. List every assumption with its value and source quality (known / estimated / guess). 5. Run a low / base / high sensitivity on the 2 most uncertain assumptions. Constraints: Show formulas and intermediate numbers; do not present a single false-precision figure without a range; label all guessed inputs. Format: Step-by-step calculation, an assumptions table, TAM/SAM/SOM figures, and a 3-scenario sensitivity table.